Law of the Day | 0424
There are two plausible but apparently contradicting intuitions about how people over-infer from observing recent events.
- The “gambler’s fallacy” claims that people expect rapid reversion to the mean.
For example, upon observing three outcomes of “red” in roulette, gamblers tend to think that “black” is now due and tend to bet more on “black” (Croson and Sundali 2005).
- The “hot hand fallacy” claims that upon observing an unusual streak of events, people tend to predict that the streak will continue.
Claus Bjørn Jørgensen Sigrid Suetens Jean-Robert Tyran
‘Predicting the improbable’
[x]#8643 fan zondag 24 april 2011 @ 11:56:06
